Kharazishvili Yu. M.
Kharazishvili Yu. M. is a senior researcher and chief researcher of Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences Ukraine, holding the Doctor of Economic Sciences.
Kharazishvili Yu. M.：How can the development of social security and strategy help determine a nation’s future?
The methodological basis for identifying and strategizing the sustainable development of economic systems is the concept of sustainable development in the safety dimension. Social security is a management structure containing a general system idea about the ways of transition from the current position of the management object to the desired one” taking into account the limitations, based on the “three whales”: applied systems theory; management theory; economic cybernetics and includes two stages:
l l identification: determination of the structure of the safety object; forming a system of indicators; determination of the limits of safe existence - scientific substantiation of safety gradations and quantitative determination of the vector of limit values; choice of integral index form; selection of the rationing method; scientific justification of dynamic weighting coefficients; simultaneous integral
l l convolution of indicators and their limit values; determination of the list and importance of the influence of threats;
l l strategizing: goal setting – defining strategic goals in security coordinates; construction of the future trajectory of targeted development; synthesis of strategic orientations of components and indicators of the security object through the decomposition of integral indices using adaptive regulation methods from management theory; execution of the "denormation" procedure - transition from dimensionless indicators to macro indicators in natural units of measurement.
Strategizing according to the principle of "future is determined by a trajectory in the future" (section of defining the strategizing stage) gives an opportunity to get an answer to the question: how to change the safety components and indicators of the object in order to achieve the given goal. The next task of the Government is to ensure the implementation of the strategic plan with all available macroeconomic policy instruments.
Therefore, the result of the strategizing stage is the synthesis of ultimately significant indicators in dynamics for each year, the observance of which ensures the desired trajectory of sustainable development in the safety dimension and is a strategic development plan, the monitoring of which is the best criterion for the actions of the Government and authorities. A similar approach to strategizing in business: “In business, as in game theory and chess, all great strategies begin by anticipating the future.Great strategies do not look back to calculate the way forward, but instead, look into the future and count back. This is where the hard work of strategy will not come to an end - not only the destination of the destination, but also the course; not just look into the future, but also calculate the steps towards it and make the necessary changes on the way to the desired goal"
The main thing of the identified scenarios is to improve the state of security of society in the safety coordinates; therefore the scientific substantiation of the limit of a safe forecast is of great importance. That is why for each indicator there is a vector of limit values: lower and upper critical, threshold, and optimal from the "sample". A "sample" sample is formed for each indicator according to the value of economically developed countries that can serve as a model for the country under study.
The only condition for applying the methodology for identifying and strategizing the safety level of any object (national, regional, as well as other types of security by type of economic activity) is the availability of the dynamics of the object's safety indicators at the end of the year in which we want to start strategizing. For example, for Ukraine, it is the end of 2022, and objective statistical data will be available within 2023. It is possible to earn a forecast of these data for the end of 2022 and get an assessment of the indicators with the following correction after the publication of official statistical data. We can also agree that all forecasts today are highly speculative, even taken from the ceiling, but they are necessary to understand the approximate depth of the fall and justify the indicators and macro indicators of the future economic policy of the related recovery of the economy of Ukraine.
In addition, the proposed strategy methodology can be used for adaptive response to threats in future periods by formalizing the impact of the threat on the integral index (or ex post facto), building a new trajectory for achieving set goals after the impact of the threat, and dynamically decomposing the new dynamics of the integral index into components and separate facility safety indicators using automatic strategizing procedures based on the principle "the future is your trajectory into the future".
2022.10.24
Contactor: Yixun Long
Interviwer: Yixun Long
Editor: Hanqi Zhang
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