Dr. Dost Muhammad Barrech teaches International Relations (IR) at the University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan. Barrech is also a former Research Associate of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad ISSI. He holds a Ph.D. degree in IR. He writes extensively on regional politics, BRI, CEPC and great power competition. He can be reached at bareach87@gmail.com
Sino-us strategic competition affects the political and economic pattern of South Asia
SPCIS: With the intensification of Sino-US strategic competition, how will the economic and security situation in South Asia change?
Dr. Dost Barrech: I think the US exceptionalism first time has been challenged by China. The South Asia ostensibly will not remain immune to Sino-US strategic competition. India is a bulwark of the US against China. Decoupling the US’s economy from China and its massive investment in India will give an advantage to the latter. New Delhi is a strategic ally of the US due to its lucrative economic market, territorial issues with China, presence in the Indian Ocean, making headway in science & technology and having an effective diaspora in the US and the West. The overlapping economic and security interests of the US and India will create challenges for China and Pakistan. Pakistan historically lacks a strong foundation in its relations with the US. Both Washington and Islamabad come closer when the third party is involved like the USSR in Afghanistan and War and Terror WOT.
Pakistan has a strong foundation in its relations with China. Both countries have many similarities in their interests. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC a flagship project of Belt and Road Initiate BRI is the lifeline of Pakistan's economy. The US and India consider BRI as a debt trap project trying to make the mega project unsuccessful which will have a great deal of ramifications for the CPEC project too. Bloc politics seems to be gaining momentum in South Asia India is already in the US bloc. Pakistan is hanging in the balance in the great power competition nor can it remain neutral in Sino-US strategic competition due to political instability and economic crisis.
I think the US hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan was a part of the Sino-US strategic competition. The US has been trying to create trouble for China in its peripheries. An unstable Afghanistan and the presence of militant groups will cause economic and security challenges for China and Pakistan. Terrorism and extremism are the Achilles hills of China. Emanating threats of terrorism, particularly from Afghanistan will disturb BRI, CPEC and NSP.
India's military modernization policy aggravates the security situation in South Asia
SPCIS: Based on your research, how will the Modi regime modernize India's military and how will this affect the security situation in China and Pakistan?
Dr. Dost Barrech: We need to know that over the last 40 years, India remained the world's largest arms importer. Under Modi’s regime, the country's defence exports between 2016 and 2019 grew by almost 700 per cent. The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), signed between India and the US in 2016, plays a substantial role in bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. In 2018, the US and India reached a security agreement known as the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). The latter offers Indian military access to secure and encrypted communication equipment installed on its aircrafts such as C-130, C-17 and P-81 aircraft and Apache and Chinook helicopters. Under this agreement, India will also get access to the Sea Guardian drones along with IFF and VHS systems which are immune from spoofing.
The US and India also inked the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) on October 27, 2020. BECA will improve the bilateral Air Force cooperation between India and the US. This enables fighter aircrafts to reach their target effectively and efficiently. The agreement also complements the Indian Missile program as it will provide Indian batteries with a high-quality GPS to circumnavigate missiles with real-time intelligence to target enemy points. Modi in 2021 purchased Russian S-400 missiles, negating US concerns about not buying Russian weaponry. It is pertinent to mention, that India has surpassed the US in hypersonic technology. In the domain of Hypersonic technology India, China and Russia are gaining an advantage over the US.
Arguably, Indian military modernization under the Modi regime will have implications for the region disturbing strategic stability, escalating conventional disparities in South Asia, and forcing Pakistan to rely more on nuclear weapons to thwart foreseen Indian belligerence. Admittedly, the most vulnerable country as far as the Indian military modernization is concerned is Pakistan. China, on the other hand, is economically and politically strong enough to thwart Indian aggression. India continues to embroil in territorial disputes with China and Pakistan. A steep increase in Indian military expenditure will alter the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and will pose grave challenges to both China and Pakistan. Revolutionizing the Indian military by inking the following defence deals with the US, such as LEMOA, and COMCASA, enhances Indian deterrence capability vis-à-vis China and Pakistan.
It is in the US interest to modernize the Indian military modernization. The more India is militarily modernized vis-à-vis China, the more it will remain instrumental for the US in China’s containment policy. The region is unlikely to remain immune to the implications of Indian military moderation. Napoleon rightly says that “there are two factors that unite man fear and interest”. The overlapping similarities in the interests of Pakistan and China impel them to jointly counter the Indian growing aggression.
The Reasons and Current Situation of India's Intervention in the South China Sea Situation
SPCIS: In your extensive experience, how will India's augmented military deployment in the South China Sea impact the already intricate scenario in the region?
Dr. Dost Barrech: India, arguably, has huge stakes in the South China Sea SCS. The sea is a crucial trade route, having oil exploration projects with Vietnam. New Delhi has been engaged in naval deployment in the SCS since 1995. These deployments range from unilateral to bilateral exercises including friendly port calls. Singapore-India Bilateral Maritime Exercises (SIMBEX) started naval deployments in 1994 in the sea. However, through friendly port calls the Indian Navy is eager to bring littoral states such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei to the SCS. The Indian Navy, in May 2019 for the first time carried out joint exercises with the U.S., Japanese, and Philippine navies in the SCS. Remember New Delhi for the first time dispatched warships to participate in a two-day joint exercise with the navies of seven ASEAN states in the sea.
Indian involvement in SCS has been accelerating due to the freedom of navigation, and strategic interests in oil and gas resources. Geographically, India is wary of tension in SCS that will have a spillover effect in the Indian Ocean which New Delhi considers its sphere of influence. India and Vietnam in the early 2000s conducted oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. Indian exploration of oil and gas is meant to increase its military presence and diversify its oil imports. Indian involvement in the sea is also a prerequisite for the country's “Act East Policy”.
I assume New Delhi will further accelerate its foothold in the SCS, it’s around 55% of trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes via these crucial waters. The SCS remains one of the busiest routes for trade, one-third of the world’s shipping passes through these Sea lines of communication (SLOC), carrying over nearly US$4 trillion worth of trade annually. The SCS is in India’s strategic calculations. New Delhi is becoming a factor in the strategic calculations of SCS states. The sea has emerged as an economic security lifeline for India and the latter, subsequently, relies greatly on the US and Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN for cooperation to preserve national interests in the region.
New Delhi is exceedingly wary of China’s presence in the Indian Ocean (IO), the former considers IO its main theatre of national interest, has resultantly been creating obstacles for China in its backyard. China's new national map of SCS impels New Delhi to accelerate its military presence in the sea. India has also been capitalizing on the Quad known as Quadrilateral Security Dialogue aimed at containing China. Relying heavily on the US in the containment of China and provoking ASEAN members, by and large, will antagonize China causing troubles in one of the busiest oceans in the world. China has already termed India as a “troublemaker” in the SCS. India is actively engaged in increasing its diplomatic and military engagement with claimant states in SCS like Vietnam and the Philippines in a bid to exert pressure on China. India with the help of the US deliberately wants to antagonize China in the Taiwan issue and SCS that might pave the way for yet another crisis after the Gaza and Ukraine crises.
The impact of Pakistan's first national security policy and its challenges
SPCIS: How will Pakistan's National Security Policy (NSP) affect the political and economic situation in South Asia and what challenges will it face?
Dr. Dost Barrech: To me it is unfortunate that South Asia is the least integrated region globally, even though Sub-Saharan Africa is economically more connected than South Asia. The region merely has five per cent of interregional trade. Against this backdrop, the National Security of Pakistan NSP is a good omen for regional trade. Under NSP, Pakistan has conceded unprecedented changes in its strategic autonomy from geopolitics to geo-economics focusing on a citizen-centric approach, promoting regional connectivity, and climate change, and ensuring economic security, dignity, safety and prosperity of the people. I believe NSP has the potential to alter the complexion of regional politics. The region, by and large, will become a hub of regional connectivity once the NSP is implemented in letter and spirit. The NSP defines CPEC as the epitome of regional connectivity. CPEC and Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline (TAPI) TAPI are the bona fide determiner of the NSP on regional relationships.
Both Pakistan and India have not capitalized on their economic potential. The Word Bank report in 2018 states that India and Pakistan have the potential to augment their bilateral trade from USD 2 billion to USD 37 billion. NSP remains to be seen as a turning point in ending the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan. From geopolitics to geo-economics, Pakistan is extremely likely to benefit from its prized geo-economic location providing easy access to "north-south and east-west connectivity for South and Central Asia, Middle-East and Africa" and "Westward connectivity is also a significant driver for Pakistan's continued push or regional peace and stability in Afghanistan. Extension of CPEC to Afghanistan will buttress the NSP. The latter is likely to gain economic and political dividends from the China–Iran Strategic Partnership. China in its envisaged USD400 billion deal will invest nearly USD280 billion in the Iranian oil and gas and petrochemicals sectors which will certainly require a CPEC route for the energy supply enabling Islamabad to get Iranian oil at a discount of at least 12%.
My sense says that Pakistan should learn from China’s inclusive approach. Over a decade, Beijing inked 15 strategic partnerships with the Arab states. To espouse China's proactive foreign policy, Pakistan could project its economic and soft power in the Middle East. Islamabad can also promote climate diplomacy under NSP. Pakistan is almost now 5th most vulnerable country to climate change. It was badly affected by the floods of 2022, lost 33 billion dollars and nearly 33 million were affected by floods. Bear in mind, Pakistan's total exports in 2023 remained USD 30 billion.
Admittedly, innumerable challenges are being faced by NSP. The perpetuating instability and economic meltdown in Pakistan put the future of NSP in jeopardy and made foreign investors sceptical of investing in the country. Regrettably, over 75 years of history, none of the prime ministers of Pakistan completed his or her five-year tenure. The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan embarked on the path to the resurgence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan TTP in the country. Attacks by TTP and BLA are shaking the confidence of foreign investors. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on June 22, 2024, approved the national counter-terrorism campaign, Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. The Operation Azm-e-Istehkam indicates that the country is unsafe for FDI and regional connectivity. In short, bad governance, lack of continuity in policies, strained relations with the neighbouring countries, security issues, bureaucratic red tape, eroding the public's trust in the state institutions and national crisis are the serious challenges faced by NSP.
Yorumlar