MARITIME POLITICS AND REGIONAL STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

UNESCO Djibouti, in collaboration with the Greater Horn Horizon Forum, convened an expert webinar titled “Maritime Politics and Regional Stability in the Horn of Africa”. The event brought together leading academics, policy practitioners, and regional specialists to unpack the strategic, political, and security challenges shaping the Horn’s maritime landscape. The webinar was part of the Bridging Horizons: Dialogues for the Greater Horn of Africa series. Dr. Ali Imran participated and represented Saint Pierre Center for International Security (SPCIS).

The session opened with Prof. Kidane Mengisteab, a renowned scholar in governance and regional security, serving as moderator. He framed the discussion by underscoring the Horn of Africa’s critical position along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital chokepoint for global maritime traffic. He noted that understanding maritime politics in this region goes beyond economics and trade. It also involves geopolitics, local governance, and regional cooperation. He invited panelists to explore how maritime dynamics are reshaping political relationships across the Horn.

The first panelist, Prof. Merera Gudina, addressed the connection between governance, democracy, and peace in the Horn. Prof. Gudina emphasized that internal political stability is foundational to maritime security. He explained that without accountable governance and inclusive political processes, states in the region are more vulnerable to external pressures and internal fragmentation. He pointed out that conflicts in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan have spillover effects on maritime corridors because instability on land often translates into weakened coastal security and increased threat of unlawful activities at sea. His remarks stressed that sustainable maritime stability requires robust political institutions and mechanisms for conflict resolution at home.

Following this, Dr. Mebrahtu Ateweberhan focused on the pragmatic aspects of sea access and regional connectivity. Dr. Ateweberhan reminded attendees that landlocked countries like Ethiopia depend heavily on access to ports for economic survival. He spoke about the strategic importance of diversified sea routes and the political tensions that arise when sea access becomes entangled with territorial disputes. Dr. Ateweberhan used the example of Ethiopia’s ongoing negotiations with neighbours for port access to highlight how maritime politics are deeply rooted in historical grievances and the absence of shared regional frameworks governing ocean access.

When it was Prof. Fayz Jamie’s turn to speak, the focus shifted to maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Prof. Jamie outlined the complex security environment, noting that the region is not only a trade lifeline but also a theater where piracy, armed conflict spillovers, and non-state armed groups pose real threats to shipping lanes. He explained that while large international naval operations help deter some threats, long-term stability depends on building regional capabilities in surveillance, coastguard operations, and intelligence sharing. Prof. Jamie highlighted that the absence of coordinated maritime surveillance allows criminal networks and insurgent groups to exploit vulnerabilities in the broader maritime domain.

Zohra Mohamed Omar, representing a strategic voice from Djibouti, offered insights into how her country navigates its unique role in maritime politics. Djibouti, she explained, hosts a dense concentration of foreign military bases from both regional and global powers. These engagements bring economic opportunities and strategic partnerships, yet also introduce diplomatic balancing challenges. Omar described how Djibouti must carefully manage competing interests to maintain sovereignty and stability. She stressed that Djibouti’s leadership sees cooperation, not confrontation, as the best approach to navigating the competing demands of larger powers while safeguarding its own national interests.

The final speaker, Abukar Arman, offered a nuanced view of the rivalry narratives shaping Red Sea geopolitics. Arman highlighted how external powers frame their involvement not simply as investments in infrastructure or security cooperation but as essential contributions to regional peace and development. He warned that such narratives often mask deeper competition for influence, economic advantage, and strategic positioning. Arman argued that these competing narratives have a real impact on local perceptions and policy choices. He noted that when maritime infrastructure is presented as purely economic, it can obscure underlying political contests that complicate efforts at regional cooperation.

The discussion highlighted that while challenges are significant, there is growing recognition among scholars and practitioners of the importance of coordinated regional frameworks, improved governance, and shared security architectures.