POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND CIVIL UNREST TRENDS 2025

In a recent webinar, leading experts from the political risk, terrorism, and cybersecurity sectors shared critical insights into the evolving landscape of global business risks. The session featured James Marsh, Senior Underwriter for Political Risks and Terrorism; Srdjan Todorovic, Head of Political Violence and Hostile Environment Solutions; Rishi Baviskar, Global Head of Cyber Risk Consulting; and Sarah Versavaud, Political Violence and Terrorism Claims Global Practice Lead. Dr. Ali Imran participated and represented Saint Pierre Center for International Security (SPCIS).

James Marsh discussed the findings of the 14th Allianz Risk Barometer, which surveyed over 3,700 participants across more than 100 countries. It revealed that political risks and violence remain a top concern globally, ranking ninth for the third consecutive year. This category is particularly significant in regions like France, the UK, Kenya, and Ivory Coast, where it ranks among the top five business concerns. Marsh emphasized that political risks extend beyond large corporations, affecting small and medium-sized enterprises as well. Key exposures include civil unrest, war risks, supply chain disruptions, terrorism, sabotage, and government intervention. Marsh warned that these interconnected risks demand proactive management as global instability continues to rise.

Srdjan Todorovic provided a comprehensive overview of the drivers behind civil unrest and political violence in 2024. He noted that while the feared 'Uber Election Year' did not trigger widespread violence, localized conflicts still erupted in regions like Mozambique. Economic hardship, policy changes, and rising costs of living remain potent triggers for unrest, as seen in Kenya and Venezuela. Todorovic also highlighted the growing threat of far-right and Islamist extremism in Europe, citing the deadly March 2024 attack in Moscow as a grim example. Looking ahead, he warned that 2025 could see further escalation as populist movements gain momentum.

Rishi Baviskar addressed the rising threat of state-sponsored cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. He stressed that these attacks, which can cause severe operational disruptions, are now among the top five global business concerns. Legacy systems in sectors like energy, transportation, and healthcare are particularly vulnerable. Baviskar also highlighted the impact of misinformation and disinformation on political stability, urging businesses to invest in robust cybersecurity strategies to counter these evolving threats.

Sarah Versavaud reflected on the financial consequences of recent political violence, noting that events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict have generated billions in insured losses. She emphasized the need for proactive risk assessment and innovative loss mitigation strategies, including the use of drones and satellite imagery to accelerate claims processing. Versavaud’s insights underscore the critical role of insurance in managing the financial fallout from political violence and terrorism.

As businesses navigate an increasingly volatile global environment, the insights from this webinar underscore the need for comprehensive risk management strategies to safeguard operations in 2025 and beyond.