Power Rivalries, Emerging Technologies, and the Future of South Asian Security

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi is the President of the Global Peace Strategy Forum (GPSF), a policy organisation committed to high-quality research, strategic advocacy, and advisory work with a global outlook. She is a seasoned scholar and policy professional with more than three decades of experience in research, teaching, and institutional development. Her leadership roles include serving as Director of Global and Regional Studies at the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) at the National Defence University, Director of Research at the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad, and a founding member of and Senior Research and Policy Analyst at the pioneering think tank of the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Islamabad.

Her expertise covers geopolitics and development, traditional and non-traditional security, China-US competition and its implications for South Asia, strategic stability, and emerging technologies. She is the author of The Road to Balance in Asia Pacific: Geopolitics of American Rebalancing and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, a first-of-its-kind contribution by a Pakistani scholar, and has taught at leading institutions. She also serves on editorial boards of strategic journals and actively contributes to international policy dialogues. Recognised for her analytical rigor, global engagement, and effective strategic communication, Dr. Kazmi continues to shape informed debate on regional and international security issues.

This interview has been authorised for publication by Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi.

We thank you, Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi for accepting our interview with the Saint Pierre International Security Center.

SPCIS: How do you view the evolving dynamics of global geopolitics and their impact on South Asia?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: The world is moving into a tougher, more competitive phase, primarily as the United States and its Western allies compete with China and Russia for influence, and as Eastern Europe and the Asia Pacific become more militarised. These changes are felt strongly in South Asia, where India’s growing partnerships, technology gains, and revisionist foreign policy are straining the regional balance. Moreover, terrorism from Afghan soil, tensions in the Indian Ocean, and climate pressures on water and food security exacerbate the regional fragility. For a secure and prosperous future, nation-states should place a higher priority on working together to achieve collective gains. Stabilising economies, protecting borders, and strengthening cooperation against terrorism should be prioritised. It is equally essential to build broader trade and technology ties with interested countries, such as China. Investing in ports and coastal security, improving regional connectivity, and using diplomacy to address misunderstandings can create more space for peace and development. Clear communication of national positions and a strong economic base will ensure strategic independence and leverage geography into a real advantage.

SPCIS: What key factors shape strategic stability in the broader Asian region today?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: Strategic stability in the broader Asian region is shaped by the fallout from intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, Indian hegemonic and revisionist behaviour, the rapid expansion of advanced military capabilities across major powers, and the erosion of traditional crisis- management norms. Precision-strike systems, counterforce doctrines, and missile defences are compressing decision timelines, while the development and deployment of dual-capable supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles introduce ambiguity, heightening the risk of war. Simultaneously, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into nuclear command, control and communication (NC3), cyber vulnerabilities, and grey-zone tactics in the maritime domain increases the possibility of inadvertent conflict. Nuclear modernisation of states, coupled with externally enabled buildup and doctrinal drifts, creates a multipolar deterrence geometry with few guardrails. Unresolved territorial disputes, coercive economic tools, and weakening arms- control regimes further undermine stability. Climate insecurity and resource pressures, especially water and energy, add stressors that can interact with geopolitical competition. The central challenge in Asia is therefore maintaining stable deterrence and expanding risk- reduction mechanisms in an environment where risks are simultaneously accelerating.

SPCIS: How do China-U.S. relations influence the security environment of South Asia?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: China-U.S. relations increasingly determine the structure and volatility of South Asia’s security environment. The strategic competition between Washington and Beijing has transformed India into a preferred partner for the U.S. in the technology, defence, and intelligence domains, significantly enhancing India’s counterforce and conventional capabilities. This external enablement reinforces New Delhi’s assertive posture toward Pakistan and reduces the space for bilateral crisis management. Conversely, deepening China- Pakistan defence and economic cooperation, primarily through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and joint military modernisation, is perceived in Washington and New Delhi as part of Beijing’s Asia Pacific engagement, thereby linking South Asian flashpoints to global power rivalry. The result is a linked security dynamic where any Pakistan-India escalation carries implications far beyond the region, encouraging both deterrence signalling and influence operations by extra-regional powers. In this environment, South Asia’s stability becomes contingent not only on Pakistan-India relations but also on the trajectory of U.S.- China competition, with the risk that local crises could be exploited or misread within broader strategic agendas.

SPCIS: In your view, what role can the emerging technologies play in maintaining or disrupting strategic balance?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: Emerging technologies have become decisive variables in both stabilising and destabilising the strategic balance. On one hand, improved Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), resilient communications, and AI-enabled decision support can strengthen deterrence by enhancing situational awareness and reducing misinterpretation. On the other hand, the same technologies can disrupt stability when they compress warning times, enable pre-emption and counterforce targeting, or blur the boundaries between nuclear and conventional capabilities. Hypersonic cruise and glide vehicles, dual-use unmanned systems, cyber-enabled NC3 attacks, and autonomous strike platforms incentivise pre-emption and heighten the risks of inadvertent escalation. Control of advanced semiconductors, space assets, and quantum-secure communications further determines which states can maintain credible second-strike capabilities. For Pakistan, the core challenge lies in selective adoption, hardening critical systems, and advancing normative frameworks to ensure meaningful human control, while contesting deployments that promote ambiguity or give adversaries confidence in disarming first-strike options. Emerging technologies, therefore, represent both an opportunity to reinforce deterrence credibility and a potential catalyst for instability if left unregulated in contested strategic environments.

SPCIS: How can regional cooperation help address both traditional and non-traditional security challenges?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: Regional cooperation can help address both traditional and non-traditional security challenges by creating predictability, reducing miscalculation, and strengthening collective resilience against transboundary threats. Mechanisms such as nuclear risk-reduction measures, crisis-communication channels, and maritime confidence-building can limit escalation between nuclear-armed neighbours while preserving deterrence. Joint counter-terrorism frameworks, integrated border management, and intelligence sharing weaken militant networks that exploit political rifts. Cooperation in climate adaptation, water-resource governance, and disaster response mitigates the humanitarian and economic stresses that often intersect with security fragilities. Connectivity, trade facilitation, and digital standards build interdependence, raising the cost of confrontation.

SPCIS: What policy approaches might enhance resilience and stability in an increasingly competitive global order?

Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi: Resilience and stability in an increasingly competitive global order require a blend of credible deterrence, disciplined geoeconomic policy, diversified partnerships, and proactive risk-reduction. Strengthening nuclear and conventional denial capabilities, protecting NC3 from cyber vulnerabilities, and ensuring survivable second-strike forces will preserve deterrence credibility despite adversarial external enablement. Regionally, practical cooperation on crisis communication, counterterrorism, and maritime safety can reduce escalation pathways and maintain operational predictability. Economic resilience must be built through export diversification, stable macroeconomic management, and targeted access to advanced technologies via China, the Gulf, and selective Western engagement. Climate and water diplomacy should be integrated into national security planning to mitigate future stressors. Finally, sustained diplomatic activism in global and regional fora will help shape emerging norms on AI, autonomous weapons, and strategic technologies, ensuring states retain both strategic autonomy and the policy space to defend their national interests during major- power rivalry.