Understanding Risk in Context: Building Resilience for Today’s Security Challenges

Patricia Paul holds a master’s degree in international relations and currently works as a Security Risk Analyst based in Dubai. She specializes in assessing global and regional security threats, with a focus on physical security, geopolitical risks, and threat intelligence. Patricia combines her academic background with hands-on experience to provide actionable insights for organizations navigating complex security environments. She is passionate about developing proactive strategies that enhance resilience, protect critical assets, and support informed decision-making in high-stakes international contexts.

This interview has been authorised for publication by Patricia Paul.

We thank you, Patricia Paul for accepting our interview with the Saint Pierre International Security Center.

SPCIS: How do you see the relationship between risk intelligence and international security evolving today?

 

Patricia Paul: In today’s interconnected world, the way we understand risk and its impact on international security has changed dramatically. Threats are no longer limited to traditional military conflicts or criminal activity. Cyberattacks, disinformation, hybrid warfare, and climate-driven crises are all part of a complex landscape that organizations must navigate. Risk does not exist in isolation; it is shaped by political, social, economic, and environmental contexts. Understanding this context is essential, because the same event or development can have very different implications depending on where it happens and who it affects. Working as a security risk analyst in Dubai, I have seen how local vulnerabilities are often tied to global trends, and how effective security strategies require both foresight and an appreciation for these broader dynamics.

SPCIS: What approaches are most effective in assessing complex geopolitical risks across regions?

Patricia Paul: Assessing geopolitical risks requires a nuanced approach. Context is everything: the same political event can have vastly different implications depending on the region. In the Middle East, political tensions, historical grievances, and tribal or sectarian dynamics can quickly escalate into instability, while in the UK, institutional frameworks, social cohesion, and regulatory environments play a more prominent role. No single measure or statistic can capture these complexities. Effective risk assessment blends quantitative data, like stability indices or trade exposure, with qualitative insights from local experts and cultural understanding. Scenario planning and predictive modelling further help visualize multiple possible outcomes, enabling organizations to prepare for what could happen rather than what they hope will happen. By comparing different regions and contexts, we can often spot recurring patterns and identify early warning signs before risks become crises.

One factor that cannot be ignored no longer is the impact of climate change. Environmental pressures are increasingly reshaping security landscapes. Water scarcity, desertification, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels influence economic stability, social cohesion, and migration patterns. For instance, in parts of the Middle East, environmental stress has contributed to population displacement and heightened tensions. Climate-induced migration can place pressure on infrastructure, alter demographics, and create new vulnerabilities for governments and organizations. Recognizing these factors as part of risk assessment allows security strategies to be more realistic, proactive, and humane, considering both the physical threats and the human consequences that come with them.

SPCIS: What innovative strategies do you find most promising for mitigating emerging security threats?

Patricia Paul: Mitigating emerging security threats demands innovation that bridges technology, human expertise, and collaboration. Predictive intelligence powered by AI and data analytics allows organizations to detect patterns and anticipate disruptions before they occur. In the Middle East, predictive tools are used to monitor critical infrastructure and enable proactive intervention, while in the UK, similar technologies protect financial systems and public networks from cyber and operational threats. Integrated security frameworks that combine physical, cyber, and operational measures help build layered protection capable of responding to multiple risks simultaneously.

Equally important is collaboration between governments and private sectors. Partnerships enhance resilience through intelligence sharing and coordinated responses to terrorism, cybercrime, and hybrid threats. Scenario-based exercises and stress tests help organizations identify weaknesses and strengthen crisis management capabilities.

SPCIS: What role does foresight play in developing resilience in high-stakes security environments?

Patricia Paul: Foresight is another key element in building resilience. Threats are rarely linear, and the ability to anticipate disruptions and plan responses in advance is essential. This requires continuous monitoring, adaptive planning, and the flexibility to adjust strategies as circumstances change. Predictive intelligence and scenario planning provide a framework, but human judgment is indispensable in interpreting data, considering ethical implications, and applying contextual knowledge. By cultivating a culture of resilience, organizations can respond to crises with confidence, maintain operational continuity, and emerge stronger in the aftermath of disruption. Practical application of these principles can be seen across regions. In the Gulf, governments and private enterprises collaborate on securing critical infrastructure, combining intelligence gathering, compliance adherence, and operational readiness. Projects in Dubai and Saudi Arabia leverage predictive analytics, local intelligence networks, and integrated frameworks to safeguard personnel and assets. In the UK, risk intelligence informs public and private sector security, with scenario planning, data-driven monitoring, and robust regulatory compliance mitigating emerging threats. Across regions, the common thread is the understanding that security, intelligence, compliance, environmental awareness, and foresight are not separate elements but interconnected components of a resilient strategy.

SPCIS: How can organizations integrate regulatory compliance into broader security strategies?

Patricia Paul: Regulatory compliance plays a central role in strengthening security, though it is often misunderstood as a purely bureaucratic exercise. Compliance is not just about following the law; it is about embedding good practices into the way an organization operates. Laws and regulations, whether for data protection, occupational safety, or operational standards, often reflect lessons learned from past crises. When compliance is integrated into broader security strategies, it reinforces protection, improves accountability, and ensures that organizations are prepared to handle unexpected events. Collaboration across departments — legal, IT, compliance, and security teams — ensures that these measures are practical and effective. Technology can support compliance by providing real-time monitoring, alerts, and reporting, while focusing resources on high-impact areas ensures that efforts are both efficient and meaningful. Beyond tools and policies, the human element remains crucial: fostering a culture where staff understand and value compliance creates a shared sense of responsibility that strengthens security at every level.

Modern security is about more than reacting to crises; it is about building the capacity to anticipate challenges, make informed decisions, and respond effectively. Risk intelligence, when combined with context awareness, environmental considerations, innovative strategies, and human judgment, allows organizations to navigate uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Security does not exist in isolation, and neither can our strategies. By understanding the world in all its complexity — the social, political, and environmental forces at play — organizations can protect what matters most: their people, their assets, and the communities they serve. For professionals in this field, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity: to apply analytical rigor, operational insight, and strategic thinking in ways that make organizations and societies more resilient in the face of an unpredictable world.